Research

Bringing scientific evidence to educational systems

Can Information on School Attributes and Placement Probabilities Direct Search and Choice? Evidence from Choice Platforms in Ecuador and Peru

Felipe Arteaga, Gregory Elacqua, Thomas Krussig, Carolina Méndez, Christopher A. Neilson · IDB Working Paper, 2022

Trials in Tacna, Peru and Manta, Ecuador tested placement-risk feedback. Effects were stronger in Peru, helped by an extra WhatsApp warning and families' experience with competitive admissions. In Ecuador, 20% of high-risk applicants were badly overconfident.

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Quantifying the Benefits of Digitalizing and Centralizing Student Applications and Assignment to Schools

Antonia Aguilera, Gregory Elacqua, Josefina Lavin, Juan Margitic, Christopher A. Neilson · IDB Technical Note, 2022

Chile moved to a single digital school admission system from 2016 to 2019. This IDB analysis estimates a net impact of USD 13 million after costs, as families apply online outside working hours and the state stops monitoring school by school.

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Centralized School Choice with Unequal Outside Options

Mohammad Akbarpour, Winnie van Dijk, Adam Kapor, Christopher A. Neilson, Seth Zimmerman · Journal of Public Economics, 2022

Systems that reward strategic ranking favor families with a backup option. Under New Haven's Boston mechanism, those who could stay put were 18.5 points likelier to rank a top-third school first. The gap shrank after the 2019 switch to Deferred Acceptance.

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Parents' Earnings and the Returns to Universal Pre-Kindergarten

John Eric Humphries, Christopher A. Neilson, Xiaoyang Ye, Seth Zimmerman · Working paper (R&R, Econometrica)

New Haven's pre-K lotteries show universal pre-K raised parent earnings by 21.7% during the pre-K years, with gains lasting six-plus years. Taxes on those earnings cut net cost to government by 90%; each public dollar returned $10.04 in benefits.

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Approximating the Equilibrium Effects of Informed School Choice

Claudia Allende, Francisco A. Gallego, Christopher A. Neilson · Working paper (R&R, Review of Economic Studies)

In a Chile trial with 1,832 preschool families, a video and personalized report card moved parents toward stronger schools; five years on, children of not-yet-enrolled families scored 0.22 SD higher in math. At scale, limited seats halve the effect.

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Search and Biased Beliefs in Education Markets

Patrick Agte, Claudia Allende, Adam Kapor, Christopher A. Neilson, Fernando Ochoa · Working paper (R&R, Econometrica)

In Chile, families knew fewer than 20% of nearby schools well and overrated their first choice. Applicants listed three schools despite 13 with open seats within 2 km. Fixing misperceptions delivers 60% of the gains of full information.

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College Application Mistakes and the Design of Information Policies at Scale

Anaïs Fabre, Tomás Larroucau, Christopher A. Neilson, Ignacio Ríos · Journal of Political Economy (conditionally accepted)

In Chile's national college admissions, nearly 40% of applicants left their most preferred program off their list, often misjudging their chances. Real-time, personalized chances and warnings roughly doubled admission for initially unmatched students.

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Heterogeneous Beliefs and School Choice Mechanisms

Adam Kapor, Christopher A. Neilson, Seth Zimmerman · American Economic Review, 2020

A survey of 417 New Haven households found families misjudged their admission chances by 37 points on average, and 32% ranked a non-favorite school first. Letting families safely list true preferences raised average family welfare in New Haven.

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Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice

Felipe Arteaga, Adam Kapor, Christopher A. Neilson, Seth Zimmerman · The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022

In Chile, families overestimated their admission chances by 32 points and stopped searching early. Live platform warnings led 22% of high-risk applicants to add schools, cutting their non-placement risk by 58%. In New Haven, responders cut their risk by 42%.

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